
The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
ValueMarkers Composite Index
51% below intrinsic value ($419)
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — VMCI valuation read
Headline read on PGR: VMCI of 64/100 versus a Financial Services sector median of 50. The 14-point above-median position is what makes The Progressive Corporation a relative-value candidate in the mid-cap cohort, before any pillar-level review.
Form 4 filings on PGR: zero in the trailing 30 days. The absence of insider transactions is itself a data point, just a low-information one. The thesis runs on financials and price action until that changes.
**Investor frame.** Three reads on PGR: value (PGR trades at 27.0x earnings, 50% above the Financial Services median of 18.0x), quality (ROIC of 15.0% sits 5.0pp above the Financial Services median (10.0%)), and risk (net debt to EBITDA of 2.1x is the rate-sensitivity line to watch). The value read also implies an EV/EBITDA gap of +4.0x against the Financial Services 12.0x baseline.
PGR fell 1.8% over the trailing 7 days, with a +7.2% read on a 30-day basis.
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
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