ARCC dividend analysis

ARCC dividend deep dive

ARCC returns 2.00% per year through the dividend at the current $370.00 share price. The payout sits at 40% of trailing earnings, leaving 60% as retained capital — the standard line for evaluating dividend safety alongside the company's free-cash-flow trajectory.

Pillar mix backing the ARCC dividend: Quality 45/100, Risk 1/100, and a payout-strain adjustment that lands the dividend safety at 49/100. The Risk pillar is the place to look first if leverage or earnings cyclicality is a concern.

Reinvested-distribution math on ARCC at $370.00: holding yield (2.00%) and growth (1.0%) constant, the cumulative income compounds to roughly 10.5% over 5 years, 22.1% over 10, 49.2% over 20.

On the peer line for ARCC: KO (5.00%), PG (1.50%), PEP (2.90%). The cohort-mean yield (3.13%) sets the baseline; the 2.00% read on ARCC is 1.13 pp below that anchor.

For ARCC cash-flow planning: ex-date 2026-03-01, settlement 2026-03-15, quarterly run-rate $1.850/share. Annualized: $7.40.

ARCC synthesis: yield 2.00%, growth 1.0%, safety 49/100, payout 40%. The next earnings line will tell whether free-cash-flow conversion supports the current trajectory.