Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. (YMZBY)
ValueMarkers Composite Index
53% above intrinsic value ($2)
Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. (YMZBY) — VMCI valuation read
Headline read on YMZBY: VMCI of 69/100 versus a Consumer Defensive sector median of 50. The 19-point above-median position is what makes Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. a relative-value candidate in the mid-cap cohort, before any pillar-level review.
Form 4 filings on YMZBY: zero in the trailing 30 days. The absence of insider transactions is itself a data point, just a low-information one. The thesis runs on financials and price action until that changes.
**Investor frame.** Three reads on YMZBY: value (YMZBY trades at 25.0x earnings, 39% above the Consumer Defensive median of 18.0x), quality (ROIC of 11.0% sits 1.0pp above the Consumer Defensive median (10.0%)), and risk (net debt to EBITDA of -0.2x leaves covenant headroom). The value read also implies an EV/EBITDA gap of +4.0x against the Consumer Defensive 12.0x baseline.
YMZBY fell 3.4% over the trailing 7 days, with a +4.5% read on a 30-day basis.
Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells baked goods in Japan. Its products include loaf bread, sweet buns, donuts, hard rolls, and Danish pastries; Japanese, Western style, and rice-derived and based confectionery; processed bread and noodles, prepared rice, and side dishes; and chocolates, candies, stevia-based and other sweeteners, snack foods, and soup and soup stocks, as well as jams, marmalades, jelly and yokan products, and ready-to-eat curries in retort pouches. The company also manufactures biscuits, cookies, crackers, and frozen bread dough; provides coffee and juice under the Yamazaki brand; creams, curry fillings, stuffing for Chinese filled buns, croquettes, meat patties, and mayonnaise products; and prepared mixes for bread, tempura, and fried chicken, as well as sells products procured from other companies. In addition, it is involved in the manufacture and sale of cleaning and disinfecting agents for food production equipment; operation of bread and pastry shops, restaurants, convenience stores, and supermarkets; provision of retail bakery and cafe management, in-store bakery management, general truck transport and freight forwarding, and insurance services; and design of equipment for manufacturing bread and confectionery, installation of production facilities, and other services. Further, the company offers logistics management services; and manufactures and sells stevia-based and other sweeteners. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,389 stores. Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
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