Mastering Softbank Stock: A Value Investor's Comprehensive Guide
Softbank stock (Tokyo: 9984.T, ADR: SFTBY) trades as a holding company, not an operating business, and the distinction is the entire investment case. As of early April 2026, SoftBank Group's net asset value (NAV) per share sits near 12,400 yen while the share price trades near 8,900 yen, a 28% discount to the company's own stated intrinsic value. The bulk of that NAV comes from two holdings: an 89% stake in Arm Holdings (ARM), worth roughly 22 trillion yen, and the combined Vision Fund 1 and 2 portfolios at roughly 8 trillion yen carrying value. Everything else, including T-Mobile US (TMUS) shares, the remaining Alibaba exposure, and the Japanese telecom business, is secondary to those two levers.
This guide pulls the holding company apart. You will see how the NAV is constructed, why SoftBank persistently trades at a 25% to 45% discount, what the Vision Fund actually owns today, and how the stock screens on our screener against alternatives like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Prosus, and Exor as a peer set of listed holding companies.
Key Takeaways
- SoftBank Group trades at roughly 8,900 yen per share in April 2026 against a stated NAV per share near 12,400 yen, a 28% NAV discount that has ranged from 10% to 55% over the past five years.
- The Arm Holdings (ARM) stake is the single largest asset, worth roughly 22 trillion yen at current ARM share prices, representing about 66% of SoftBank's NAV.
- Vision Fund 1 and 2 hold roughly 8 trillion yen in fair value across 300-plus portfolio companies, with a combined net IRR near -1% since inception, recovering from the -15% bottom in 2022.
- SoftBank has repurchased roughly 6 trillion yen of its own shares since 2019, representing one of the largest buyback programs in Japanese corporate history.
- Net debt stands at roughly 5.5 trillion yen; loan-to-value on the asset holdings sits at approximately 16%, a level the company describes as its long-term target.
- Forward P/E is not a meaningful metric for SoftBank because earnings are dominated by mark-to-market swings on the Vision Fund portfolio; NAV discount and look-through IRR are the correct valuation lenses.
What Softbank Stock Actually Is
SoftBank Group, founded by Masayoshi Son in 1981, is a Japanese holding company with a market cap near 13 trillion yen (roughly $85 billion). The company's operating history has moved through four distinct phases: Japanese software distribution in the 1980s, Yahoo Japan and internet infrastructure in the 1990s and 2000s, telecom (Sprint, Vodafone Japan, T-Mobile equity) in the 2010s, and the Vision Fund era from 2017 onward.
The current SoftBank is almost entirely an investment holding company. Operating revenue from the remaining Japanese telecom business exists but is secondary to the asset-level dynamics. The investment case rests on three questions: what are the holdings worth, how is that NAV likely to move over the next 3 to 5 years, and what discount should investors demand for holding it through SoftBank rather than owning the components directly.
For Japanese investors, softbank stock trades under the ticker 9984 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. For U.S. investors, the ADR (SFTBY) provides unsponsored exposure. Liquidity and price discovery live in Tokyo; the ADR typically follows with a modest FX overlay.
The NAV Construction
SoftBank reports its NAV quarterly. The April 2026 NAV breakdown looks roughly like this:
| Holding | Fair Value (yen trillion) | Share of NAV |
|---|---|---|
| Arm Holdings (89% stake) | 22.0 | 63% |
| Vision Fund 1 & 2 portfolio | 8.0 | 23% |
| T-Mobile US stake | 3.2 | 9% |
| SoftBank Corp (Japanese telecom) | 2.5 | 7% |
| Alibaba residual + other | 0.8 | 2% |
| Other investments | 0.6 | 2% |
| Total asset value | 37.1 | 106% |
| Less: net debt | (2.1) | -6% |
| NAV | 35.0 | 100% |
NAV per share works out to roughly 12,400 yen against 2.8 billion shares outstanding. The share price at 8,900 yen implies the market is assigning a 28% discount to the company's own sum of parts.
The numbers to watch are the top two lines. Arm is 63% of NAV, so every 10% move in ARM's share price shifts SoftBank's NAV per share by roughly 6.3%. The Vision Fund line is 23% of NAV but carries significantly more valuation uncertainty because most of its holdings are private companies marked quarterly by internal review.
Why The Discount Exists
Listed holding companies trade at discounts to NAV for predictable reasons. SoftBank trades at a steeper discount than most peers for specific reasons:
Capital allocation track record. Masayoshi Son's wins (early Yahoo, Alibaba, Arm) are spectacular. His losses (WeWork, Didi, Wirecard, Greensill, Katerra) are also spectacular. Investors apply a discount for the possibility that future capital allocation repeats the losses rather than the wins.
Vision Fund valuation opacity. Private-company marks inside the Vision Fund are subject to internal judgment. Public-market comparables, round-led valuations, and independent audits provide constraints, but investors demand a discount for the information asymmetry.
Double taxation of Arm value. Arm itself pays taxes on its earnings. If SoftBank sells Arm shares, it pays capital gains tax. A U.S. investor buying ARM directly avoids the double layer. SoftBank's discount partly reflects this tax inefficiency.
Concentration risk. With Arm at 63% of NAV, SoftBank is effectively a leveraged bet on Arm plus a diversified technology sleeve. The concentration raises the discount investors require versus a more diversified conglomerate like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), which trades closer to 1.0x P/B (roughly a 0% to 5% discount to internal fair value estimates).
Capital structure complexity. SoftBank uses margin loans against Arm shares, structured equity derivatives, and asset-backed financing extensively. The Monte Carlo tail risk on those structures in a market drawdown is genuine and contributes to the discount.
The Arm Holdings Variable
ARM went public in September 2023 at $51 per share, valuing the company at roughly $54 billion. By April 2026, ARM trades near $140 per share, a market cap near $150 billion. SoftBank's 89% stake is therefore worth roughly $133 billion, or about 20 trillion yen at current exchange rates.
ARM's business model is royalty-based licensing of CPU architectures that power roughly 99% of the world's smartphones and a growing share of data-center AI accelerators. Revenue grew 24% in the most recent fiscal year. Operating margins are expanding as ARM's licensing mix shifts toward higher-value Arm v9 and custom-core designs.
For softbank stock valuation, the question is how much of ARM's future growth is already priced in. ARM trades at roughly 70x forward earnings. That multiple prices continued 20%-plus revenue growth for at least five years. If ARM delivers, SoftBank's NAV compounds. If ARM disappoints, SoftBank's NAV contracts.
The mechanics: every $10 move in ARM's share price shifts SoftBank's NAV per share by roughly 380 yen, about 3% of current NAV. SoftBank's decision to retain 89% of ARM rather than distribute shares to shareholders is a deliberate structural choice that keeps SoftBank's upside and downside tied to ARM's trajectory.
The Vision Fund Math
Vision Fund 1 launched in 2017 with $100 billion in committed capital. Vision Fund 2 launched in 2019 with roughly $60 billion. The combined portfolio holds 300-plus companies across AI, e-commerce, fintech, biotech, and logistics. Major current holdings include ByteDance (majority privately held), Didi (public), OYO (pending IPO), Coupang (public), TikTok-parent ByteDance equity, and roughly 280 other names.
The performance history has been volatile. By Q4 2022, Vision Fund 1 had an unrealized loss of roughly $15 billion against committed capital. By Q4 2025, mark-to-market recovery had moved the combined Vision Fund IRR back to roughly -1% net of fees. That is still below the 10%-plus IRR that LPs in venture and growth equity expect, but well off the 2022 lows.
| Vintage | Committed Capital | Current NAV | Net IRR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vision Fund 1 (2017) | $98.6B | $92.3B | -0.4% |
| Vision Fund 2 (2019) | $59.4B | $41.8B | -4.2% |
| Combined | $158.0B | $134.1B | -1.8% |
For value investors, the key read is that the Vision Fund's mark-to-market swings are a dominant driver of SoftBank's reported earnings but a secondary driver of NAV today (23% weight). The more important question is what the runoff looks like. SoftBank can distribute cash from portfolio exits, reinvest in new positions, or return capital to shareholders. Between 2022 and 2025, the company deliberately slowed new Vision Fund investments and prioritized share repurchases and debt reduction.
The Buyback Program
SoftBank has been one of the largest issuers of share repurchases in Japanese market history. Between 2019 and 2025, the company repurchased roughly 6 trillion yen of its own stock, representing a 20%-plus reduction in share count. Every buyback has occurred at a discount to stated NAV, so the repurchases have been NAV-accretive on paper.
The mechanics: if a company trading at a 30% discount to NAV buys back its own shares, each share retired cancels more NAV than the cash spent. Every 100 yen of buyback at a 30% discount creates roughly 143 yen of NAV accretion for remaining shareholders. This is the mathematical case for holding-company buybacks when the discount is wide.
SoftBank has explicitly stated buybacks will continue when the NAV discount exceeds 25%. At the current 28% discount, further buybacks are likely. The capital source is either Arm share sales (taxable), Vision Fund exits (lumpy), or new asset-backed borrowing (incremental use).
Comparing Softbank Stock To Listed Holding Company Peers
Running softbank stock through our screener against other listed holding companies clarifies the valuation relative to peers.
| Holding Company | Market Cap | Primary Holdings | NAV Discount | Long-Term IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) | $905B | Apple, BAC, AXP, KO, insurance | ~0% | 19.8% (1965-2025) |
| SoftBank (9984.T) | $85B | Arm, Vision Fund, T-Mobile | 28% | 12% since 2000 |
| Exor NV (EXO.AS) | $18B | Ferrari, Stellantis, CNH | 35% | 14% since 2009 |
| Prosus (PRX.AS) | $95B | Tencent, delivery assets | 40% | 11% since 2019 |
| Investor AB (INVE-B.ST) | $75B | Atlas Copco, ABB, Epiroc | 18% | 13% since 2000 |
The pattern: European holding companies with technology asset concentration (Prosus via Tencent, Exor via Stellantis and Ferrari) trade at similar or wider discounts than SoftBank. Berkshire Hathaway is the outlier with essentially zero discount, reflecting 60 years of trust in Warren Buffett's capital allocation. Investor AB, the Wallenberg family's Swedish holding company, trades at a modest 18% discount because of disciplined capital allocation and a more diversified industrial portfolio.
For value investors considering softbank stock, the comparative question is whether Masayoshi Son's execution improves over the next 5 years to a level that justifies a narrowing of the discount toward Investor AB's 18% range or whether structural issues keep the discount closer to Prosus's 40%.
How Softbank Stock Screens On Value Metrics
Running 9984.T through our screener on the VMCI framework produces a mixed picture:
Value (NAV discount). Strong signal. The 28% discount ranks in the top quartile globally among listed holding companies. Price-to-book sits near 1.1x, which is deceptive because much of the "book" is Vision Fund marks.
Quality (capital efficiency, margins). Weak signal. Reported ROE is volatile because of Vision Fund mark-to-market swings. Operating margin at the holding-company level is near zero (excluding asset value changes).
Integrity (accounting quality). Mixed signal. SoftBank's audited Vision Fund valuations rely heavily on internal judgment. The company has historically been transparent about markdowns, but the opacity of private-company valuations keeps the integrity score in the mid range.
Growth. Depends entirely on ARM and Vision Fund trajectory. ARM growing at 20%-plus supports a positive growth thesis for SoftBank. A stalled ARM and flat Vision Fund performance make the thesis a pure NAV-discount arbitrage.
Risk. Elevated. Single-asset concentration in ARM, private-company valuation uncertainty, and macro yen/FX exposure combine to produce a risk score in the bottom quartile of listed holding companies.
The composite VMCI Score comes out below average, driven primarily by the Risk and Quality pillars. Value investors buying softbank stock are making a specific bet: the NAV discount narrows, ARM continues compounding, and the Vision Fund portfolio generates positive returns from here.
Practical Considerations For U.S. Investors
Buying SFTBY (the U.S. ADR) rather than 9984.T on the Tokyo Stock Exchange carries three practical implications:
Liquidity. 9984.T trades roughly $200 million in daily volume on TSE. SFTBY trades roughly $5 million daily on the U.S. OTC market. Large positions need to use the Tokyo listing.
Withholding tax. Japanese dividend withholding applies at 15%-plus on distributions. SoftBank's dividend yield is low (roughly 0.5% on current price), so the drag is minimal in practice.
FX exposure. SoftBank's underlying NAV is denominated in yen but holds USD-denominated assets (ARM, T-Mobile). A stronger yen hurts SoftBank's reported NAV; a weaker yen helps. Over 2024-2025, yen weakness against the dollar was a meaningful tailwind for SoftBank's reported numbers.
For a value investor looking to own the Arm Holdings thesis without the SoftBank holding-company overlay, buying ARM directly is cleaner. The SoftBank case rests on the discount narrowing, which requires a catalyst: either aggressive buybacks, a large distribution of ARM shares to shareholders, or improved Vision Fund performance driving NAV growth.
Further reading: SEC EDGAR · FRED Economic Data
Why 9984.T Matters
This section anchors the discussion on 9984.T. The detailed treatment, formula, and worked examples appear in the body of this article above. The points below summarize the most important takeaways for value investors who want to apply 9984.T in real portfolio decisions. ValueMarkers exposes the underlying data on every covered ticker via the screener and stock profile pages, so the concepts in this article translate directly into actionable filters.
Key inputs for 9984.T
See the main discussion of 9984.T in the sections above for the full treatment, including the inputs, the calculation methodology, the typical sector benchmarks, and the most common pitfalls to avoid. The ValueMarkers screener lets value investors filter the full universe of 100,000+ stocks across 73 exchanges using 9984.T alongside the rest of the 120-indicator composite, with sector percentiles and historical trends shown on every stock profile.
Sector benchmarks for 9984.T
See the main discussion of 9984.T in the sections above for the full treatment, including the inputs, the calculation methodology, the typical sector benchmarks, and the most common pitfalls to avoid. The ValueMarkers screener lets value investors filter the full universe of 100,000+ stocks across 73 exchanges using 9984.T alongside the rest of the 120-indicator composite, with sector percentiles and historical trends shown on every stock profile.
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Frequently Asked Questions
what happens if the stock market crashes
During a stock market crash, holding companies like SoftBank typically experience larger drawdowns than the broad market because their underlying asset values are hit while the discount to NAV widens simultaneously. In March 2020, softbank stock fell 44% in three weeks against a 34% S&P 500 decline. Circuit breakers halt U.S. trading at 7% (15-minute halt), 13% (second 15-minute halt), and 20% (close for the day) intraday declines, with similar mechanisms on Japan's exchange. Historically, crashes have reversed within 3 to 18 months, and NAV discounts on holding companies have compressed back to long-term averages within 6 to 24 months of the bottom.
what time does the stock market open
The Tokyo Stock Exchange opens at 9:00 a.m. Japan Standard Time (JST) and closes at 3:00 p.m. JST, with a mid-day break from 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. JST. In U.S. Eastern Time, the TSE session runs from 8:00 p.m. the previous day to 2:00 a.m. Eastern with the mid-day break at 10:30 p.m. to 11:30 p.m. Eastern. For U.S. investors holding the SFTBY ADR, U.S. OTC trading hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern on normal trading days.
are stock markets closed today
The Tokyo Stock Exchange observes roughly 19 holiday closures per year, more than U.S. exchanges. Key 2026 Japanese closures include January 1-3 (New Year holidays), January 12 (Coming of Age Day), February 11 and 23 (National Foundation and Emperor's Birthday), late April through early May (Golden Week holidays), and late December (Emperor's Birthday Dec 23 and year-end closure). U.S. OTC trading of SFTBY follows U.S. holiday schedules, which creates days where SoftBank trades in Tokyo but not on the U.S. ADR, and vice versa.
what time does the stock market close
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closes at 3:00 p.m. Japan Standard Time (JST), which is 2:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S. winter or 1:00 a.m. Eastern in summer daylight saving. SoftBank's ADR (SFTBY) follows the U.S. OTC close at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Softbank stock price discovery is concentrated in the Tokyo session; the U.S. ADR price the following day typically tracks the Tokyo closing level adjusted for overnight ARM stock movement and FX changes.
when does the stock market open
For Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed softbank stock (9984.T), the market opens at 9:00 a.m. Japan Standard Time, Monday through Friday excluding Japanese market holidays. In Eastern Time, that maps to 8:00 p.m. the previous day (winter) or 7:00 p.m. (summer). The U.S. OTC market for SFTBY opens at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time alongside the regular NYSE and Nasdaq sessions. Pre-market ECN trading of U.S. ADRs can start as early as 4:00 a.m. Eastern on major retail brokerages.
why is the stock market down today
Any given-day decline in softbank stock is typically driven by one of four factors: an ARM Holdings share-price decline (which moves 60%-plus of SoftBank's NAV), a broader Japanese equity sell-off driven by yen strength or BoJ policy news, a negative Vision Fund valuation event (a portfolio company markdown or IPO disappointment), or a global technology sector rotation that hits all holding-company valuations simultaneously. On any specific day, tracking ARM's U.S. close the prior session usually explains more than half of SoftBank's open-to-close move.
Use our screener to evaluate softbank stock against the peer set of listed holding companies, and run the Arm Holdings stake separately through our DCF calculator to decide whether the NAV discount is a buying opportunity or a structural feature. The discount is real; whether it is attractive depends on what you think ARM is worth.
Written by Javier Sanz, Founder of ValueMarkers. Last updated April 2026.
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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.