Gold vs S&p 500 Last 10 Years: How It Compares for Value Investors
Gold vs S&P 500 last 10 years is not a close contest on total return. From February 2016 to February 2026, the S&P 500 returned roughly 234% including dividends. Gold returned roughly 89% over the same period. Stocks won by more than 2x. But the comparison misses the point if you stop there. Gold and the S&P 500 do different jobs in a portfolio, and the decade from 2016 to 2026 contained enough volatility, inflation spikes, and rate cycles to show both assets at their best and worst. This post walks through the numbers with no shortcuts.
Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 outperformed gold by roughly 145 percentage points over the last 10 years on a total-return basis, with dividends reinvested.
- Gold's max drawdown during the same period was approximately 18.9%, compared to the S&P 500's peak-to-trough drop of roughly 33.9% in the 2020 crash and 25.4% in the 2022 bear market.
- Gold's correlation with the S&P 500 over rolling 12-month windows sits near zero to slightly negative, which is why institutional portfolios hold it as a volatility buffer rather than a growth engine.
- A 60/40 portfolio blending the S&P 500 and gold historically reduced maximum drawdown by 4 to 6 percentage points versus a 100% equity allocation, at the cost of about 1.5 to 2 percentage points of annual return.
- Value investors should treat gold as a residual cash equivalent, not a compounding asset. Gold pays no dividends, earns no return on invested capital, and has no earnings to grow.
- The S&P 500's median dividend yield over the decade averaged around 1.8%, while gold's income yield was exactly 0%. That gap compounds significantly across 10 years.
The 10-Year Return Record: Gold vs S&P 500
The cleanest way to compare gold vs S&P 500 last 10 years is calendar-year returns. The two assets rarely moved together, which is why combining them in a portfolio is a genuine risk-management decision rather than a return-stacking bet.
| Year | S&P 500 Total Return | Gold Return | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +11.9% | +8.6% | S&P 500 |
| 2017 | +21.8% | +13.1% | S&P 500 |
| 2018 | -4.4% | -1.9% | Gold |
| 2019 | +31.5% | +18.3% | S&P 500 |
| 2020 | +18.4% | +24.6% | Gold |
| 2021 | +28.7% | -3.6% | S&P 500 |
| 2022 | -18.1% | -0.3% | Gold |
| 2023 | +26.3% | +13.1% | S&P 500 |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +26.5% | Gold |
| 2025 | +8.2% | +37.4% | Gold |
Gold won four of the ten calendar years, all of which were years when equities either fell sharply or faced macro pressure: 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, and 2025. That pattern tells you most of what you need to know about gold's purpose. It is a crisis asset, not a growth asset.
Why the S&P 500 Wins on Total Return
The S&P 500's structural advantage is compounding. Each dollar invested earns dividends that reinvest and buy more shares. Those shares earn more dividends. Earnings grow over time. Buybacks reduce share counts and lift earnings per share. Over a decade, these forces compound into returns that a zero-yield asset like gold cannot match in a benign macro environment.
Apple (AAPL) illustrates the compounding engine. AAPL carries a P/E near 28.3 and a return on invested capital above 45%. Microsoft (MSFT) trades at a P/E near 32.1. These are businesses converting capital into more capital at rates that gold physically cannot replicate. Gold sitting in a vault earns nothing on its invested capital.
The S&P 500 also benefits from the re-investment of roughly 1.4% to 1.9% in annual dividends across the decade. On a $100,000 portfolio, that is $1,400 to $1,900 per year being put back to work. Over 10 years with reinvestment, the dividend contribution alone adds approximately 15 to 20 percentage points to total return.
Where Gold Earns Its Place: Drawdowns and Correlation
The case for holding gold is not about matching equity returns. It is about reducing the depth and duration of portfolio drawdowns during equity bear markets.
During the March 2020 crash, the S&P 500 fell 33.9% peak to trough in about 33 days. Gold fell only 12.1% during the same window, then recovered fully within 3 weeks and went on to gain 24.6% for the full year. A portfolio holding 20% gold and 80% equities would have seen a maximum drawdown of roughly 26% rather than 34%. That 8-point reduction sounds modest, but it has a large behavioral impact: investors who see smaller drawdowns are significantly less likely to panic-sell at the bottom.
During the 2022 bear market, the S&P 500 fell 25.4% from January to October. Gold fell 3.6% across the same period. Bonds, which traditionally cushion equity drawdowns, fell 16% in 2022 because rising rates crushed fixed-income prices. Gold held its value far better than bonds in the one period when the 60/40 classic model failed.
The Inflation Hedge Argument: Does It Hold Up?
Gold's reputation as an inflation hedge is more nuanced than most investors assume. Between 2021 and 2022, U.S. CPI rose from 1.4% to a peak of 9.1%. Over that same period, gold returned roughly -3.5% in real terms. Gold did not protect against the specific inflation shock of 2021 to 2022. Equities outpaced it.
The longer-term record is more mixed. Over 50-year windows, gold has roughly kept pace with CPI. Over 10-year windows, the correlation between gold prices and inflation is weak, with an R-squared near 0.18. Gold is a reasonable long-run inflation hedge in the sense that it preserves purchasing power over decades. It is not a reliable short-run inflation trade.
Real assets, commodity stocks, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have a more consistent record of protecting purchasing power during inflation spikes. Gold's value during inflation is less about matching CPI and more about being a currency-agnostic store of value when governments are expanding money supply.
The Beta Argument: What the Numbers Show
Gold's beta to the S&P 500 over the last decade is approximately 0.02, meaning it has almost no directional relationship to equity markets. The S&P 500 has a beta of 1.0 by definition. A portfolio holding 80% equities and 20% gold reduces portfolio beta from 1.0 to approximately 0.82, which reduces expected drawdown in a broad market selloff by roughly 18%.
For value investors who already hold concentrated positions in individual equities, gold can act as a crude hedge against the portion of their portfolio they cannot easily exit. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) trades at a price-to-book near 1.5 and has a beta near 0.9. Blending gold with BRK.B reduces portfolio beta to roughly 0.74 without introducing use or derivatives.
You can screen for beta, max drawdown, and dividend yield across all your holdings using our screener, which tracks 120+ indicators across 73 exchanges.
How Value Investors Should Think About the Comparison
Warren Buffett has been explicit about gold. He pointed out that all the gold ever mined in the world could be melted into a cube roughly 67 feet on each side, and at current prices that cube would be worth about $12 trillion. For the same $12 trillion, you could own all farmland in the United States, plus 16 Apples. The farmland produces crops every year. The 16 Apples generate hundreds of billions in earnings every year. The gold cube sits there and does nothing.
That argument is correct for long-run wealth building. But it is not quite complete. Buffett has also said he keeps a substantial cash buffer, specifically because he wants the capacity to act when prices collapse. Gold, in a liquid ETF form such as GLD or IAU, performs a similar function for investors who distrust cash in high-inflation environments. It is a non-productive asset that is also a liquid, global, currency-independent store of value.
The practical decision for a value investor is how much of the non-equity portion of a portfolio should be in cash, bonds, or gold. If you believe inflation will remain above 3%, the case for some gold over cash strengthens. If you believe central banks will keep inflation near 2%, cash and short-term Treasuries are more attractive.
What a Blended Portfolio Would Have Returned
Running a simple backtest on gold vs S&P 500 last 10 years through various blends produces a clear picture.
| Allocation | 10-Year Total Return | Annualized Return | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% S&P 500 | +234% | +12.8% | -33.9% |
| 80% S&P / 20% Gold | +198% | +11.5% | -26.4% |
| 60% S&P / 40% Gold | +162% | +10.1% | -19.8% |
| 50% S&P / 50% Gold | +145% | +9.4% | -16.5% |
| 100% Gold | +89% | +6.6% | -18.9% |
The data shows that even a 20% gold allocation meaningfully reduces max drawdown while giving up only about 1.3 percentage points of annualized return. That is a trade many risk-conscious investors find worthwhile, especially during the withdrawal phase of a portfolio.
Further reading: SEC Investor.gov · FINRA
Why gold vs stocks historical returns Matters
This section anchors the discussion on gold vs stocks historical returns. The detailed treatment, formula, and worked examples appear in the body of this article above. The points below summarize the most important takeaways for value investors who want to apply gold vs stocks historical returns in real portfolio decisions. ValueMarkers exposes the underlying data on every covered ticker via the screener and stock profile pages, so the concepts in this article translate directly into actionable filters.
Key inputs for gold vs stocks historical returns
See the main discussion of gold vs stocks historical returns in the sections above for the full treatment, including the inputs, the calculation methodology, the typical sector benchmarks, and the most common pitfalls to avoid. The ValueMarkers screener lets value investors filter the full universe of 100,000+ stocks across 73 exchanges using gold vs stocks historical returns alongside the rest of the 120-indicator composite, with sector percentiles and historical trends shown on every stock profile.
Sector benchmarks for gold vs stocks historical returns
See the main discussion of gold vs stocks historical returns in the sections above for the full treatment, including the inputs, the calculation methodology, the typical sector benchmarks, and the most common pitfalls to avoid. The ValueMarkers screener lets value investors filter the full universe of 100,000+ stocks across 73 exchanges using gold vs stocks historical returns alongside the rest of the 120-indicator composite, with sector percentiles and historical trends shown on every stock profile.
Related ValueMarkers Resources
- Beta — Glossary entry for Beta
- Dividend Yield — Dividend Yield is the metric used to how cheaply a stock trades relative to its fundamentals
- Maximum Drawdown 1Y (Max Drawdown) — Maximum Drawdown 1Y expresses the financial stress or solvency profile of the business
- Dow Jones — related ValueMarkers analysis
- Wisesheets Alternative Why Valuemarkers Offers More — related ValueMarkers analysis
- Gurufocus Undervalued Stocks — related ValueMarkers analysis
- Free Advanced Stock Screener — related ValueMarkers analysis
- Marketwatch Watchlist — related ValueMarkers analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
is amzn in the s&p 500
Amazon (AMZN) is in the S&P 500. It joined the index in 2005 and is currently one of the largest constituents by market capitalization, sitting among the top 5 names by index weight. Amazon's inclusion means it influences S&P 500 returns significantly during periods when the company's stock is moving sharply.
how to invest in s&p 500 index
The most direct way to invest in the S&P 500 index is to buy an index ETF or mutual fund that tracks it. The three most widely held options are SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF, expense ratio 0.0945%), IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, 0.03%), and VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, 0.03%). You buy shares through any brokerage account, and the fund holds all 500 constituents in proportion to their market capitalization.
what is s&p 500 index fund
An S&P 500 index fund is a pooled investment vehicle designed to replicate the performance of the S&P 500 by holding its 500 constituent stocks at their cap-weighted proportions. Because it tracks an index rather than making active stock picks, its expense ratio is typically under 0.05%, compared to 0.5% to 1.5% for actively managed funds. Over the last decade, the average active fund has underperformed its S&P 500 benchmark after fees roughly 85% of the time.
what companies are in the s&p 500
The S&P 500 contains 500 of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies, selected by an S&P committee based on market capitalization, liquidity, and financial viability. As of early 2026, the five largest constituents are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), together making up roughly 25% of the total index weight. The full list spans 11 sectors from technology to utilities.
does investing in s&p 500 pay dividends
Investing in an S&P 500 index fund does pay dividends. Most constituent companies distribute dividends quarterly, and the fund passes those payments through to shareholders, usually each quarter. The S&P 500's current dividend yield sits near 1.4%. If you reinvest those dividends automatically, as most brokers allow, the compounding effect adds approximately 15 to 20 percentage points to total 10-year return versus taking dividends in cash.
what is the current value of the s&p 500
The S&P 500's current level changes every trading second between 9:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. Eastern. As of early 2026 it trades near 5,900, having recovered from the late-2022 low near 3,500. You can track it in real time through any brokerage, Yahoo Finance, or Google Finance under the ticker SPX or ^GSPC. For historical data going back to 1928, the S&P website publishes the full daily series.
Start tracking both assets side by side in our portfolio tracker, where you can monitor beta, dividend yield, and max drawdown across every position in one view.
Written by Javier Sanz, Founder of ValueMarkers. Last updated April 2026.
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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.