Nasdaq Lunr Financials by the Numbers: A Data Analysis for Investors

Nasdaq Lunr Financials by the Numbers: A Data Analysis for Investors

Nasdaq LUNR financials tell the story of a pre-profit aerospace company in a sector that commands premium multiples on revenue growth alone. Intuitive Machines (ticker: LUNR) listed on the Nasdaq via SPAC merger in 2023 and became the first commercial company to soft-land on the Moon in February 2024. That mission milestone drove a sharp re-rating in the stock. What the financial statements show is a business with genuine NASA contract revenue, thin gross margins, and an operating loss that is shrinking but has not yet reached breakeven. For investors who follow value frameworks built around earnings, cash flow, and the Graham Number, LUNR is a challenge worth understanding precisely.

This analysis applies the quantitative tools from our screener and classic valuation theory to the numbers Intuitive Machines has reported through mid-2026.

Key Takeaways

• LUNR generates real revenue from NASA CLPS contracts, with fiscal 2025 revenue near $250 million, up roughly 80% from fiscal 2024.
• Gross margin has improved from 3% in 2023 to near 18% in 2025, but operating losses persist as the company invests in infrastructure and mission capacity.
• The Graham Number is mathematically undefined for LUNR because EPS is negative, which is a signal, not a flaw in the analysis.
• Margin of safety calculations require positive earnings; the correct approach for LUNR is to build a revenue-based DCF model with conservatively wide discount rates.
• The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio near 8 as of mid-2026, which is high relative to mature aerospace but low relative to speculative tech names at the same growth rate.
• Contract visibility from multi-year NASA programs reduces some revenue uncertainty, but execution risk on complex lunar missions is real and has not been priced to zero.

What Intuitive Machines Actually Does

Intuitive Machines operates in three segments: Lunar Access Services (NASA CLPS missions), Space Products and Infrastructure (satellites, navigation), and Space Services (data, analytics, hosted payloads).

The Lunar Access segment is the headline driver. NASA has committed billions to the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program over the decade, and Intuitive Machines holds multiple task orders. Revenue recognition is milestone-based, which creates quarterly lumpiness. An understanding of the contract structure matters more for LUNR than for a consumer goods company with smooth recurring revenue.

The direction of every line in this table matters more than the absolute level for a pre-profit company. Gross margin nearly tripling in three years, operating losses shrinking in absolute dollars as revenue scales, and a consensus forecast of near-breakeven by FY2026 describe a business moving in the right direction.

The Graham Number Cannot Be Applied Here

The Graham Number formula is the square root of (22.5 x EPS x Book Value Per Share). Benjamin Graham designed it as a quick filter for profitable companies trading at a double discount, below both their earnings power and their asset value.

LUNR has negative EPS through at least 2026. The formula produces a complex number when you input a negative EPS, which is not a quirk to work around. Graham himself would have excluded LUNR from his screen on this basis alone. He required at least three years of positive earnings before applying his valuation framework.

This is important context when you see articles citing a "Graham Number" for LUNR. Those figures are either fabricated or based on positive consensus estimates for future years, which is a forward multiple, not a Graham Number.

The analytically correct approach is to use a DCF intrinsic value model with wide scenario bands and a generous margin of safety to account for execution uncertainty.

Margin of Safety Analysis for a Pre-Profit Business

Margin of safety is the discount between a stock's intrinsic value and its current market price. For profitable companies, intrinsic value comes from earnings or cash flow. For pre-profit companies, you model the path to profitability and discount the cash flows from that future state.

A conservative LUNR DCF model uses three scenarios:

At a mid-2026 price near $8, the base case suggests modest undervaluation and the bear case suggests meaningful downside. The 9% discount rate used in this model may be too low for a space-industry company with execution risk on missions that have historically failed 50% of the time across all providers.

Investors who require a 40% margin of safety would want to see LUNR below $6.90 before building a position based on the base-case fair value. That threshold has been hit several times in 2025 and 2026 during broader tech selloffs.

The P/E Ratio: Why It Does Not Apply Yet

The P/E ratio divides the stock price by trailing twelve-month earnings per share. LUNR has no trailing P/E because TTM EPS is negative. Forward P/E based on 2027 consensus estimates, when the first positive EPS is projected, places the ratio above 200.

That is not a meaningful number. Compare LUNR's forward P/E to Apple's trailing P/E of 28.3 or Microsoft's 32.1 and the comparison is apples to spacecraft. The more useful valuation anchor is the EV-to-Revenue ratio, which places LUNR near 8x, and the EV-to-Gross-Profit ratio near 45x.

LUNR is priced like high-growth tech on a revenue basis but has gross margins closer to aerospace manufacturing. The multiple requires margin expansion and sustained revenue growth to be justified.

Contract Visibility and Revenue Quality

One genuinely positive feature of LUNR's financial profile is contract-backed revenue. NASA CLPS task orders are government contracts with defined scope and milestone payments. Unlike product revenue, which depends on customer decisions each quarter, NASA contract revenue has high visibility once awarded.

As of mid-2026, Intuitive Machines has a backlog near $400 million in firm contract value. That covers roughly 1.6 years of revenue at the current run rate. Defense and aerospace peers typically maintain 2-3 year backlogs. The shorter coverage ratio reflects LUNR's smaller scale, not poor demand.

The risk is execution. IM-1 landed successfully in February 2024 but suffered a landing system malfunction. IM-2 and IM-3 performance will either strengthen or erode the company's reputation for mission success, which is the single biggest variable in winning future NASA task orders.

Applying the ValueMarkers Framework

Our VMCI Score framework weights Value (35%), Quality (30%), Integrity (15%), Growth (12%), and Risk (8%). LUNR's approximate ratings:

• Value (35%): Low. Negative earnings, high EV/Revenue, and no P/E anchor drag this pillar to the bottom.
• Quality (30%): Below average. Negative operating income, cash burn, and thin gross margins. Improving but not yet investable on quality criteria alone.
• Integrity (15%): Neutral. SPAC history requires scrutiny of dilution, but financial reporting appears consistent.
• Growth (12%): High. 80% revenue growth and a clear multi-year government contract pipeline.
• Risk (8%): Very high. Mission failure risk, single-customer concentration (NASA), and equity dilution from ongoing capital raises.

The composite score places LUNR in a speculative category. It is not a screener-grade investment on fundamentals today, but it may qualify as a monitored position for investors with high risk tolerance and a 3-5 year horizon.

Use our screener to track LUNR's fundamentals quarterly as gross margin and operating loss evolve.

Further reading: SEC EDGAR · Investopedia

Why lunr stock analysis Matters

This section anchors the discussion on lunr stock analysis. The detailed treatment, formula, and worked examples appear in the body of this article above. The points below summarize the most important takeaways for value investors who want to apply lunr stock analysis in real portfolio decisions. ValueMarkers exposes the underlying data on every covered ticker via the screener and stock profile pages, so the concepts in this article translate directly into actionable filters.

Key inputs for lunr stock analysis

See the main discussion of lunr stock analysis in the sections above for the full treatment, including the inputs, the calculation methodology, the typical sector benchmarks, and the most common pitfalls to avoid. The ValueMarkers screener lets value investors filter the full universe of 100,000+ stocks across 73 exchanges using lunr stock analysis alongside the rest of the 120-indicator composite, with sector percentiles and historical trends shown on every stock profile.

Sector benchmarks for lunr stock analysis

See the main discussion of lunr stock analysis in the sections above for the full treatment, including the inputs, the calculation methodology, the typical sector benchmarks, and the most common pitfalls to avoid. The ValueMarkers screener lets value investors filter the full universe of 100,000+ stocks across 73 exchanges using lunr stock analysis alongside the rest of the 120-indicator composite, with sector percentiles and historical trends shown on every stock profile.

Related ValueMarkers Resources

• Graham Number — Graham Number captures how cheaply a stock trades relative to its fundamentals
• Pe Ratio — Glossary entry for Pe Ratio
• Margin of Safety — Margin of Safety expresses how cheaply a stock trades relative to its fundamentals
• Financial Independence Investing — related ValueMarkers analysis
• Nasdaq Tsla Financials — related ValueMarkers analysis
• Behavioral Finance Biases That Hurt Your Returns — related ValueMarkers analysis

Frequently Asked Questions

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Nasdaq futures contracts roll over quarterly, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The front-month contract transitions to the next quarter, and most trading volume migrates to the new front month in the week before expiration. For longer-term investors, contract rollover does not affect stock holdings, only derivatives positions.

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The Nasdaq falls most sharply when interest rates rise or when earnings disappoint at the index's largest components. Because tech and growth stocks dominate the Nasdaq-100 at over 57% weight, a repricing in just five or six large-cap names can move the whole index by 1-2%. Pre-profit companies like LUNR tend to fall disproportionately during these risk-off periods because their valuations depend most on discounting distant future cash flows.

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You can trade the Nasdaq-100 through QQQ (the most liquid ETF), NQ futures on the CME, or options on QQQ. For individual Nasdaq-listed stocks like LUNR, fundamental analysis of revenue quality, gross margin trajectory, and contract backlog is more relevant than index-level analysis. Our screener filters Nasdaq-listed names by 120 indicators.

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The Nasdaq declines when the present value of future earnings falls, which happens most directly through rising discount rates (interest rates) or downward revisions to earnings estimates. Growth and pre-profit names are the most rate-sensitive because their earnings are furthest in the future. LUNR, with no positive earnings projected until at least 2027, is among the most rate-sensitive names on the exchange.

what is the nasdaq today

The Nasdaq refers to the Nasdaq Composite (over 3,000 stocks, ticker: COMP) and the Nasdaq-100 (100 largest non-financial Nasdaq companies, ticker: NDX). LUNR is a constituent of the Nasdaq Composite but not the Nasdaq-100, as it does not yet meet the size and profitability thresholds for inclusion.

how is the nasdaq doing today

Track the Nasdaq Composite under COMP and the Nasdaq-100 under NDX or via the QQQ ETF on any brokerage platform. The index updates in real time from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Pre-market and after-hours levels are available but less liquid.

For a full picture of LUNR's fundamentals alongside comparable space and defense names, run the comparison in our screener.

LUNR's Capital Structure and Dilution Risk

Intuitive Machines has funded its growth through equity issuances, a legacy of the SPAC merger structure. Total shares outstanding have increased from roughly 90 million at the time of the SPAC closing to over 130 million by mid-2026. That dilution of approximately 44% since listing directly reduces the per-share intrinsic value calculation.

Any DCF model for LUNR must account for future dilution. If the company needs to raise additional capital before reaching cash flow breakeven, current shareholders absorb further dilution. Projecting a dilution of 10-15% from current levels over the next 18 months is a conservative assumption for the bear-case scenario.

The cash position as of the most recent quarterly report sits near $65 million. At the current cash burn rate of approximately $12-15 million per quarter, the runway extends roughly 4-5 quarters without additional capital. This means the company will almost certainly need to either raise equity, draw on its ATM facility, or accelerate milestone payments from NASA contracts before year-end 2026.

Comparable Companies in the Space Economy

Comparing LUNR to its peers clarifies where it sits in the market structure of the commercial space economy.

LUNR trades at a discount to Rocket Lab on an EV/Revenue basis despite similar gross margin profiles. The discount likely reflects LUNR's shorter track record, higher mission execution risk, and smaller contract backlog coverage. Rocket Lab's launch vehicle business provides more predictable recurring revenue, which justifies a premium.

The NASA Relationship as a Competitive Advantage

One factor that does not show up directly in the financial statements is the strategic value of being a preferred NASA CLPS provider. Winning one CLPS task order opens the door to subsequent orders because NASA values mission continuity with proven partners.

Intuitive Machines won the IM-4, IM-5, and Near Space Network contracts totaling over $700 million in announced contract value. That backlog exceeds the company's entire current market cap at certain points during 2025, which is a backlog-to-market-cap ratio that defense and government services investors recognize as a quality signal.

The risk is that NASA's budget is subject to Congressional appropriation. Any reduction in the Artemis program funding directly affects LUNR's revenue pipeline. Monitoring NASA budget news is a necessary part of fundamental analysis for this stock in a way it is not for AAPL or MSFT.

Use the screener on ValueMarkers to compare LUNR's EV/Revenue, gross margin trajectory, and backlog metrics against comparable aerospace names.

Written by Javier Sanz, Founder of ValueMarkers. Last updated April 2026.

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